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zwibbs/Scott
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Maybe weird Al was right
« on: Dec 15th, 2006, 8:09am » |
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The temperatures in NY are too warm. The projected forecast for the next week shows highs from 50-60 degrees. Last friday 12/08---was the first really cold day --everybody froze their galyones off, but then the strange warm air set in.
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chewy
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #1 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 8:15am » |
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Vote YES on Global Warming!
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Opus
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #2 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 9:22am » |
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Weird Al wrote a song about warm winter days?
Oh yeah, Christmas at ground zero.
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| « Last Edit: Dec 15th, 2006, 9:22am by Opus » |
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JDH
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #3 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 9:22am » |
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It's all George Bush's fault 
Jim
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thomas
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #4 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 9:43am » |
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on Dec 15th, 2006, 9:22am, JDH wrote:It's all George Bush's fault
Jim |
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Yep, Bill Clinton had lowered the average temperature by .002768 degrees during his term, but that damn Bush had to go and change all the policies on global warming and rasie the temp by twice as much. 
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Josh W
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #5 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 9:49am » |
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I live in Fl. All I heard about last year was get ready for the worst hurricane season ever. They were wrong. Tell me this. If they cant perdict the weather for next week let alone next hurrican season, then how are they so sure we are warming to our extinction?
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Paul98
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #6 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 10:10am » |
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Al Gore should look at the solar cycles and sun spot activity since ~ 1600. Since 1900 there has been a rise in the # of sunspots during the solar cycles. This data fits nicely with historical (ave.) temp records.
There is a reason Al isn't a scientist. If it were not for the public pockets he would have starved to death a long time ago.
-P.
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Brew
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #7 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 10:18am » |
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The government IS controlling the weather. Pass it on.
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floridian
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #8 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 10:26am » |
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on Dec 15th, 2006, 9:49am, nosnowmen wrote:| I live in Fl. All I heard about last year was get ready for the worst hurricane season ever. They were wrong. Tell me this. If they cant perdict the weather for next week let alone next hurrican season, then how are they so sure we are warming to our extinction? |
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Not sure that climatologists are talking about human extinction - merely a costly and painful mess.
How can it be explained? Statistics. If you don't understand statistics, you cant understand the world. There will always be random fluctuation and unpredictability. But if a system is understood, we can better predict. We will not always be right, but it we can be 'more righter' over time.
If you have a bag full of 100 red marbles and 100 blue marbles, the same size, weight and texture, and you pull out ten without looking, the most likely outcome will be 5 and 5. But it could be 6 of one color, 4 of the other, or 10 of one color, none of the other. Or any other combo that adds up to 10.
If you start adding more red marbles, you are changing the probabilities. With 200 red and 100 blue, you will still get unusual events, like 10 blue and no red. That is just less common.
Adding greenhouse gases to the air is like adding red marbles - there is no doubt it increases heat retention and will change the overall outcome. It doesn't mean that there will never be cold events or 10 blue marbles, just that the overall pattern shifts in one direction.
Polar ice is thinning. Glaciers are retreating. Ocean levels are rising.
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floridian
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #9 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 10:36am » |
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on Dec 15th, 2006, 10:10am, Paul98 wrote:Al Gore should look at the solar cycles and sun spot activity since ~ 1600. Since 1900 there has been a rise in the # of sunspots during the solar cycles. This data fits nicely with historical (ave.) temp records.
There is a reason Al isn't a scientist. If it were not for the public pockets he would have starved to death a long time ago.
-P.
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"The current scientific consensus is that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been attributable to human activities"
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/007.htm
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Brew
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #10 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 10:41am » |
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on Dec 15th, 2006, 10:26am, floridian wrote:| How can it be explained? Statistics. If you don't understand statistics, you cant understand the world. |
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There are lies.
There are damned lies.
And there are statistics.
Have you ever heard of the concept of "backing into an answer?" You come up with the answer you want, then you find little bits and pieces of trivia to support your "findings."
You're right, Flo. If you don't understand statistics, you can't understand the world - of politics.
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zwibbs/Scott
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #11 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 10:52am » |
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Even New York's own Al Sharpton is calling the weather-----Reedickalus.
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floridian
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #12 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 11:00am » |
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on Dec 15th, 2006, 10:41am, brewcrew wrote:
There are lies.
There are damned lies.
And there are statistics.
Have you ever heard of the concept of "backing into an answer?" You come up with the answer you want, then you find little bits and pieces of trivia to support your "findings."
You're right, Flo. If you don't understand statistics, you can't understand the world - of politics. |
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Statistics are no different than words, pictures, maps, or other tools for describing the world. They can be used dishonestly, but only a fool would reject all photography because there was a picture of him caught in a compromising position.
Wasn't long ago that people were saying 'smoking doesn't cause cancer, but it does cause statistics.' There was a disinformation campaign to make people believe that there was no possibility of determining whether smoking caused an increase in cancer. It does.
Today, the politicization of statistics is again being waged by powerful economic interests that would have to make changes if the public accepted the science showing that
Brewcrew, you simply don't understand how the scientific process works. The idea that humans are doing things that will change the atmosphere and cause it to warm has been examined for decades, and it started out as an idea with little support. Over the course of thousands of studies, the evidence has become stronger and stronger, and it has gotten more acceptance. It is now a concensus of the scientific community that anthropogenic global warming is real. There are differences of opinion on how large this will ultimately be, or how fast it will occur.
The worst sort of politics comes from the people who are commited to opposing an idea, regardless of the facts. Real scientists accept the idea that variation in the sun's output is one factor. It is the right wing hacks that have siezed on that natural explanation and have ideologically rejected other possibilities.
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| « Last Edit: Dec 15th, 2006, 11:01am by floridian » |
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Brew
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #13 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 11:08am » |
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on Dec 15th, 2006, 11:00am, floridian wrote:| Brewcrew, you simply don't understand how the scientific process works. |
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I, sir, am a scientist.
You and I are done.
PFDAN to you.
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Paul98
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #14 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 11:09am » |
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on Dec 15th, 2006, 10:36am, floridian wrote:
GRID-Arendal main goals 2006-2009:
"Increase awareness through visual communication, popularised information, workshops and media tours".
A branch of the UN that uses pop science to promote an agenda.
-P.
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floridian
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #15 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 11:18am » |
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Oh my. Next thing you know the public health departments will be using visual communication, newspaper articles and other means of propaganda to advance their notion that high blood pressure should be treated!! And in Africa, they will extend their mind-control agenda with media campaigns telling people to use mosquito netting to reduce the chances of getting malaria.
Black helicopters are everywhere.
Scientific organizations should educate the public on scienctific issues. Even when it cheezes off some politicians or some economic interests.
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| « Last Edit: Dec 15th, 2006, 11:25am by floridian » |
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Brew
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #16 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 11:23am » |
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It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into.
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Josh W
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #17 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 11:33am » |
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Leave the presence of a fool, Or you will not discern words of knowledge. Iam with you Brew.
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floridian
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #18 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 11:35am » |
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Lovely quote - not sure how it is relevant to this discussion ... are you saying you think its time to pull the plug on reason and rationality?
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floridian
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #19 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 11:58am » |
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Quote:Policy-makers and the media, particularly in the United States, frequently assert that climate science is highly uncertain....This is not the case.
The IPCC is not alone in its conclusions. In recent years, all major scientific bodies in the United States whose members' expertise bears directly on the matter have issued similar statements. For example, the National Academy of Sciences report, Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions, begins: "Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise" [p. 1 in (5)]. The report explicitly asks whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking, and answers yes: "The IPCC's conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue" [p. 3 in (5)].
Others agree. The American Meteorological Society (6), the American Geophysical Union (7), and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) all have issued statements in recent years concluding that the evidence for human modification of climate is compelling (8).
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686
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| « Last Edit: Dec 15th, 2006, 11:58am by floridian » |
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Paul98
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #20 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 12:03pm » |
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on Dec 15th, 2006, 11:35am, floridian wrote:| Lovely quote - not sure how it is relevant to this discussion ... are you saying you think its time to pull the plug on reason and rationality? |
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What I would like to hear Flo is what is the change in energy retention /M2 in mW for a known % increase in atmospheric CO2. What I keep hearing though is "the Boogie Man is going to get you" through such films ar "The day after Tomorrow", stories that in 10 years the seas are going to rise 100M, and a host of other dooms day stories that the media eagerly doles out as sound science and the politicians with an agenda intoxicate themselves on.
-P.
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Josh W
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #21 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 12:03pm » |
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Because I dont agree with you I am wanting to pull the plug on reason and rationality? It is YOUR reasoning that I dont agree with.
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floridian
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #22 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 12:11pm » |
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on Dec 15th, 2006, 12:03pm, nosnowmen wrote:| Because I dont agree with you I am wanting to pull the plug on reason and rationality? It is YOUR reasoning that I dont agree with. |
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Sorry, I was replying to BrewCrew's post, and you inserted your comment between us I shoulda quoted him, but didn't.
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BobG
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #23 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 12:16pm » |
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The weather was invented in Vegas. Vegas has all rights to weather. It is sold to the highest bidder on an as-needed basis.
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Josh W
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Re: Maybe weird Al was right
« Reply #24 on: Dec 15th, 2006, 12:23pm » |
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Sorry Florida.
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