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How is this mathematically possible? (Read 2980 times)
BMoneeTheMoneeMan
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How is this mathematically possible?
Dec 13th, 2008 at 2:57am
 
Here is the 7 day weather outlook.  It is going to get cooler here, over the next 48 hours.  So, reading this weather forecast, it says the overnight low on saturday night is 33.  The high for sunday is 28.

Can someone tell me how it is logistically possible for this to happen?  If the overnight low is 33, how can the high for the next day be 28?  If 11:59pm was the coldest minute at 33 degrees, how does it go to 28 degrees by 12:01am?

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Am I just an anal a$$hole or am I not reading this correctly?

B$

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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #1 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 3:02am
 
BMoneeTheMoneeMan wrote on Dec 13th, 2008 at 2:57am:
Here is the 7 day weather outlook.  It is going to get cooler here, over the next 48 hours.  So, reading this weather forecast, it says the overnight low on saturday night is 33.  The high for sunday is 28.

Can someone tell me how it is logistically possible for this to happen?  If the overnight low is 33, how can the high for the next day be 28?  If 11:59pm was the coldest minute at 33 degrees, how does it go to 28 degrees by 12:01am?

centralmediaserver.com/koin/weathergraphics/7DAY_Web_Large.jpg

Am I just an anal a$$hole or am I not reading this correctly?

B$


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Rolomatic
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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #2 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 3:02am
 
Time of day = night low@4am, day high@2pm, weather front blows in and there you have it... Pretty simple.
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BMoneeTheMoneeMan
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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #3 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 3:04am
 
KingOfPain wrote on Dec 13th, 2008 at 3:02am:
BMoneeTheMoneeMan wrote on Dec 13th, 2008 at 2:57am:
Here is the 7 day weather outlook.  It is going to get cooler here, over the next 48 hours.  So, reading this weather forecast, it says the overnight low on saturday night is 33.  The high for sunday is 28.

Can someone tell me how it is logistically possible for this to happen?  If the overnight low is 33, how can the high for the next day be 28?  If 11:59pm was the coldest minute at 33 degrees, how does it go to 28 degrees by 12:01am?

centralmediaserver.com/koin/weathergraphics/7DAY_Web_Large.jpg

Am I just an anal a$$hole or am I not reading this correctly?

B$



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BMoneeTheMoneeMan
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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #4 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 3:07am
 
Rolo, I dont understand.  Can you give me a timeline of how that would happen?

ETA: We are supposed to hit 40 tomorow afternoon and then the temp will drop steadily for about 36 hours.  How can it be 33 at 11:59 and then 28 at 12:01? 

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« Last Edit: Dec 13th, 2008 at 3:14am by BMoneeTheMoneeMan »  

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Rolomatic
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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #5 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 3:12am
 
BMoneeTheMoneeMan wrote on Dec 13th, 2008 at 3:07am:
Rolo, I dont understand.  Can you give me a timeline of how that would happen?



The weather is not done by the 12am day change; it is calculated by 4am as the night low, and 2pm as the day high. Always had been that way, always will…

Smiley
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BMoneeTheMoneeMan
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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #6 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 3:15am
 
It is?  Damn.

ok, so lets say at 3:59 am on sunday morning it's 33 degrees.  At 4:01, how can they forecasT it will drop by 5 degrees?
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Rolomatic
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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #7 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 3:20am
 
B$, you must be on shrooms or drunk… I can tell you this, It's F'n cold out and I hitt'n the sack. Have a good one, I'll see where this went in the morning.

PF's Roland. Smiley

Add; Oh, I fogot to add the solar thermodynamic lag to the equation.. Grin
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« Last Edit: Dec 13th, 2008 at 3:30am by N/A »  
 
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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #8 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 4:16am
 
It is mostly Al Gore's fault ...

That and new math ...
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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #9 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 5:43am
 
B$$ I don't understand it either. I read the forecast and it said the LOW for the night was 33 and it was 25 degrees at that time (3 a.m.).

Maybe Chuckles is right - I went to school BEFORE they came out with that modern math -- some things just will remain a mystery!!!

But my buns are freezing!!!! Smiley

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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #10 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 6:54am
 
BarbaraD wrote on Dec 13th, 2008 at 5:43am:
But my buns are freezing!!!!

There are some that would say
(Not necessarily ME, mind you ...)
that you are ALL a$$ ...

BUT, if that is the case, you have LOTS of buns to be freezing!

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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #11 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 7:09am
 
I think you have to remember that meteorology is not a science. it's an art. . . . like Medicine . . .  uuuuummmm, wait. . . . . .

Let's just assume they are all paid fortune tellers . . . VERY well paid fortune tellers. . . . .that explains everything.  The law of averages says they are right half the time . . . . .

And I can't believe the whining that it's cold at 25 degrees!!.

I swam in Lake Michigan when it was colder than that!  Get a grip!! Cheesy
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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #12 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 7:26am
 
I swam in Lake Michigan when it was colder than that!  Get a grip!!

and that was in August.

I got up early this morning to check the temperature change at 4:00am.  It was 19 degrees.
At 4:01 it was still 19 degrees.  I don't get it.

                                JPC
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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #13 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 8:02am
 
Me thinks Brian would blow a gasket living in Wisconsin... Grin
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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #14 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 8:31am
 
Just Plain Carl wrote on Dec 13th, 2008 at 7:26am:
I swam in Lake Michigan when it was colder than that!  Get a grip!!

and that was in August.


Nyuck nyuck nyuck . . . Wink
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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #15 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 8:41am
 
B$, it can happen.  It makes a big thud sound at the instant it changes. I've heard it. Really. I think it's called QTS (Quantum Temperature Shift). You have to be on the cold side to hear it.

Mo...I'm gonna be a weatherman in my next life.  Only having to make the correct forecast some of the time and still having a job appeals to me.

And what about the concept of absolute zero. Why is there no limit on heat? I know of some people who are absolute zeros one day and the very next day the do something even more stupid that goes beyond the previous reading. Look at Congress...

Steve G
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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #16 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 9:34am
 
The daytime high is considered to be 1-2 hours after the sun hits its highest peak, or afternoon.  This is when meteorologists have determined the day is typically at its hottest point.  On the low end, it is typically the coldest right around sunrise being the earth has been losing all of the heat it had absorbed during the daytime hours overnight.  It is a bit confusing, but there is no set clock to when they are predicting temps.  they are simply saying the coldest and hottest points of the day.  There has to be a coldfront heading your way, or in your case an ice front.  Your ice front is going to keep the temp dropping and they are just trying to reflect it is going to be colder in the afternoon.  

A question for you.  When it is frozen outside can you really tell a difference in temp change?  

 
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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #17 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 9:57am
 
Extended weather forecastBillings, MT

    * Local forecast
    * Hourly
    * Ten-day
    * Maps
    * Averages

Detailed ten-day forecast      
°F | °C
Blizzard warning
Day      Forecast      Description      Precip chance
Today
Dec 13

Details
     Snow ShowersSnow Showers

Hi: 29° Lo: -14°
     

Day: Definite light snow with blowing snow. High 29F, humidity 70%. Winds N at 25 to 30 mph. Air Quality: NA, UV Index: 0
     100%

Night: Chance of light snow. Low -14F. Winds N at 15 to 20 mph.
     85%
Tomorrow
Dec 14

Details
     FlurriesFlurries

Hi: -5° Lo: -16°
     

Day: Slight chance of light snow. High -5F, humidity 100%. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph. Air Quality: NA, UV Index: 1
     30%

Night: Chance of light snow. Low -16F. Winds SSW at 10 to 15 mph.
     30%
Monday
Dec 15      FlurriesFlurries

Hi: -8° Lo: -14°
     

Slight chance of light snow. High -8F and low -14F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Air Quality: NA, UV Index: 1
     25%
Tuesday
Dec 16      FlurriesFlurries

Hi: 4° Lo: -5°
     

Slight chance of light snow. High 4F and low -5F. Winds light. Air Quality: NA, UV Index: 1
     15%
Wednesday
Dec 17      ClearClear

Hi: 12° Lo: 3°
     

Sunny skies. High 12F and low 3F. Winds light. Air Quality: NA, UV Index: NA
     10%
Thursday
Dec 18      Scattered FlurriesScattered Flurries

Hi: 16° Lo: 3°
     

Slight chance of light snow. High 16F and low 3F. Air Quality: NA, UV Index: NA
     20%
Friday
Dec 19      FlurriesFlurries

Hi: 5° Lo: -2°
     

Slight chance of light snow. High 5F and low -2F. Air Quality: NA, UV Index: NA
     95%
Saturday
Dec 20      ClearClear

Hi: 12° Lo: 4°
     

Sunny skies. High 12F and low 4F. Air Quality: NA, UV Index: NA
     5%
Sunday
Dec 21      PM CloudsPM Clouds

Hi: 11° Lo: 7°
     

Sunny skies. High 11F and low 7F. Air Quality: NA, UV Index: NA
     5%
Monday
Dec 22      FlurriesFlurries

Hi: 16° Lo: -11°
     

Cloudy with flurries. High 16F and low -11F. Air Quality: NA, UV Index: NA
     50%
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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #18 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 10:07am
 
Quote:
A question for you.  When it is frozen outside can you really tell a difference in temp change?  
 


ABSOLUTELY.  For instance, it's about 23 degrees here (F) and my nose hairs don't freeze up when I go outside.  I can also take a deep breath easily.  At about 2 degrees and below (F) my nose hairs freeze instantly upon going outside. Also, at this temperature, Guiseppi can't take a deep breath . . . .  Wink

It's all still below freezing, but it has a VERY different feel.

You should hear me try to explain to newbies-to-this-climate that when the sun comes out in the winter, that usually means it's getting COLDER!! (no thermal layer to keep heat in).
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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #19 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 10:27am
 
Don't forget to factor in the windchill!  That makes it a whole nuther level of excitement. Roll Eyes

Last night would have been nice at 10 degrees, but the damn wind was blowing making it feel 15 degrees colder.
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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #20 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 11:32am
 
Introduction

This study was initiated due to the lack of data concerning the accuracy of weather forecasts.  The purpose of the study was to determine how accurate weather forecasts really are, and how accuracy differs between weather forecast providers.  The author also personally wanted to know who provided the most accurate forecasts.  In speaking with weather forecast providers and curious individuals, it became apparent that there has been no comprehensive, on-going, large-scale accuracy analysis of Internet weather forecast providers.  This study aims to be the largest on-going accuracy analysis of Internet weather forecast providers.  This report details the results of the first six-months of this study.

Comparison Criteria Selection

High temperature accuracy was chosen as the basis for this study because of its numerical precision and consistent definition between providers.  The only aspects of a general forecast that are expressed as numbers, which are easy for computers to work with, are the high and low temperature, precipitation probability, and precipitation amount.  All other predictions, from cloud cover to wind levels, are usually expressed in human terms.

Precipitation probability and amount were removed from consideration as not all internet weather forecast providers supply that information in their summary forecasts as a numeric value.  Low temperature was removed after careful consideration because it was found after the study began that different providers have different meanings for low temperature.  Some providers consider a low for a given day to be the low that occurred that morning and previous night.  Others consider the low for a given day to the overnight low for the coming evening.  Finally, some National Weather Service climatological summary reports document the low that occurred in the 24-hour period from midnight to midnight.  For these reasons, the high temperature forecast was determined to be the most accurate, unambiguous measure of a forecast’s accuracy.

Data Collection Methodology

Each night starting at 10 p.m. Eastern from January through June, forecasts were collected from the six major internet weather forecast providers that met all selection criteria.  Intellicast and MyForecast use the station call sign as the forecast identifier.  For the others, the zip code from the table above was used to retrieve the forecast.  The next day, two-day-out, and three-day-out forecasts were collected.  The daily climatological summary from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s Climate Operations Branch was used as the official observational record of each day.

Table 2 lists the number of forecasts retrieved for each provider from the period of January 1, 2003, to June 30, 2003.  The table also lists the number of forecasts compared to actual observations.  There were 181 days in the time period.  There were 20 cities in the study, each with a 1-, 2-, and 3-day-out forecast for each day in the study.  Therefore the maximum number of forecasts that could be retrieved for each internet weather forecast provider is 181 days times 3 forecasts per day, times 20 cities, or 10,860 individual forecasts.

There were a total of 181 days times 20 cities, or 3,620 observation records possible.  Of that, 3,414 observations were actually collected or 94.31% of the total possible.  Possible reasons why a forecast or observation could not be retrieved were network problems, site unavailability, or other technical problems.  Unisys in particular was challenging as not all forecasts were filled in with the high and low temperatures.  Even with all those challenges, on average over 85% of possible forecasts were collected and scored against actual observations, a total of 55,754 individual forecasts.  This makes the study the largest accuracy study of internet weather forecast providers ever.

Comparison Methodology

The high temperature forecast error was calculated by subtracting the high temperature forecast from the observed high temperature, and squaring the result.  This was done for the one-, two-, and three-day-out forecasts.  Each calculated error was then averaged to derive a single error for each provider.  This result is called the root-mean-squared error, or RMS error.  RMS error was used because it is an indicator of standard deviation as well as difference.  With this approach, wide variation is penalized more than consistency with a few large errors.  This approach has its root in the customer experience: a customer of a forecast would rather see forecasts that were mostly right most of the time than right-on sometimes and dead-wrong others.  With RMS error, a lower number indicates greater forecast accuracy.

Additionally, the number of high temperature forecasts that had an absolute error (the absolute value of the difference between the forecast and the observation) within three degrees was calculated.  This number was then divided by the total number of forecasts for the provider to derive the percentage of forecasts within three degrees of actual.  This is a measure of the number of forecasts that could be considered “correct”.  This measure was included as a measure of correctness, as the “three-degree guarantee” is becoming popular amongst television meteorologists.
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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #21 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 12:13pm
 
B-have ya ever heard of extrapolation??
Here's my theory:
In Portland, right now, it is CCOOLLLDD! It is gonna get colder still.....by tomorrow sometime, it's gonna be even colder than before..then it's gonna warm up a skosh, dump some snow, THEN, the snow is gonna freeze, coz it's gonna get REALLY cold.that should be along about mon-tues ..and I'm gonna venture ascross the street, remember w3hat happens to snow when it freezes over..........ice skate across the street to the mailbox, and end up in the middle of the street on my tailbone, in pain! Along about Valentine's day, we will all thaw out and life will begin to return to normal!

So, have ya got chains on that Mercedes? We're having a christmass gathering, and youi and Diana will be expected. We'll let you know where and when.either Jeff & Kimberly's place, or our place........

Now, where did I leave my ice skates????? 

CCcooolld CCCatttthhiiii Cheesy
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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #22 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 5:18pm
 
It was 64 degrees F today. Tongue

Monday is back into the 30's and 40's. The weather is changing daily. Back and forth snow, rain, warm, cold....bleh. West Texas is strange place. Snowing during a dust storm is very weird.


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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #23 - Dec 13th, 2008 at 9:15pm
 
The high and low predicted are not predicted to happen at certain times.

Tonight it is 10 F, during the night a warm front will come through, so instead of just before sunrise being the coldest part of the day it will probably be 30 F. The high will go to 40 F. The recorded low will be 10F because that was the temp at 12:01am even though it went up until sunrise.

It could happen that the low for the day was at noon and the high for the day was at midnight, it all depends on when fronts move through the area in winter.

Paul
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Re: How is this mathematically possible?
Reply #24 - Dec 15th, 2008 at 5:14pm
 
Quote:
The weather is not done by the 12am day change; it is calculated by 4am as the night low, and 2pm as the day high. Always had been that way, always will…

Smiley


A good model includes latitude and day of the year - around here, the average high temp is around 4 pm, and the average low is a bit after dawn.

Moneydude - think of it in terms of cash flow (solar input) and account balance (temperature).

The cash flow is greatest at solar noon. But on most days, cash flow remains positive for several hours after solar noon.  Eventually (at 2 or 4 or whenever), the amount of heat coming in drops below the amount that is radiated to space (negative cash flow, balance or temp starts declining).

In the morning, as the sun peeks in, the solar income goes from zero to positive.  But the 'cash flow' is still negative - more energy is being lost to space than is coming in from the weak sunlight. So it is usually still cooling off even when it is getting bright.

Course, this does not include the movement of fronts - a cold front moving through can make it warmest around midnight. Also, clouds complicate it - at night they hold more heat in, during the day they can hold some out.
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