About Probability

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Posted by Ueli ( on January 22, 2001 at 09:41:43:

In Reply to: Shelly... posted by Luke on January 21, 2001 at 23:21:55:

If the occurrence of an event is highly unlikely that does not mean it can not happen.

After all, why else should millions of people wager their money in the lottery if not in the hope to be among the few big winners?

But it is an abuse of statistical laws, if you say a certain event is not what it looks to be, just because it has a low probability to occur. Ask the majority of the Ladies on this board about being misdiagnosed with migraines because 'CH is a predominately male disease'.

Whether you heard it or not, we had on this MB reports of children aged 8 - 10 with CH and one more suspected case much younger. As we still don't know the exact causes of CH, it is invalid to argue that a 2 year old is not enough developed to get CH (what is the organ/structure/any other feature that must reach a certain maturity for the onset of CH? We don't know).

One of the characteristic features of CH is the extremely rapid onset of the pain as well as the fast ending. I could imagine that a caring mum is able to recognize this.


BTW, Let's reserve the 'believing' for religious matters :-)

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